I decided many years ago that I was not going to allow con-men and grifters to sell their batshit crazy in my living room. So I embarked on a top-10 European MBA, plus a few years of working in large scale infrastructure projects. A plethora of statistical analysis and forecasting, to be sure. Looking back it was probably overkill. Like buying an AR-15 when a fly swatter to Mike Pence's head would do. But hey, je ne regrette rien!
I've blogged a few analyses in the past, especially when I hear otherwise smart people talking about things they do not understand. A little tough to bite my tongue when it is coming from the college-educated gang. So I won’t...
"Leading economic indicators" are complex. They track the pulse of capitalism, not the libido of presidents. Presidents' policies impact, but in a free market they are not solely responsible for results. Obama did not “fix” the Great Recession: he impacted its recovery. Trump did not grab the economy by its pussy: he’s been riding it like a pornstar.
Let’s look at MEDIAN HOUSEHOLD INCOME. The Obama administration inherited, and was forced to navigate, the Great Recession of 2008 during their first term. They set their policy with the aim of slamming the breaks on a Median Household Income nose-dive, which had started during the last two years of GW Bush’s administration. By the time Obama’s second term rolled through, the Median Household Income had managed to grow by an impressive 10.5% (between 2013 and 2016).
Enter stage right the Economic Messiah. Earlier this year, as he was kicking off the final year of his first term, Trump took a victory lap around his State of the Union address. He bragged about a record high Median Household Income, one that could be contested depending on how you dissect data from the Federal Reserve and the Census Bureau. But let’s say we decided to give him the benefit of the doubt with that number. Guess what: his first term growth (pre-pandemic) peaked at a rate of 9.2% (between 2017 and 2020). That’s right: with no leading economic indicators in distress when he took office, a fairly robust economy handed over to him from his predecessor, Trump STILL couldn’t beat Obama on rate of growth.
Notice on the chart below how during Obama’s second term, Median Income went up while INFLATION went down. That is a good combo for obvious reasons. Trump’s Median Income growth on the other hand is negatively impacted by inflation - further watering down his braggadocio...
On the chart below, notice how the income dramatically increases during Trump’s first term for anyone making over $200,000. I make a very good living, but you know what? It’s not about me, is it. It’s about that more perfect union thing:
As for the trifecta of leading economic indicators - GDP, Debt, and Stock Market (S&P 500) - what we have there now is a pile of crap propped up by smoke and mirrors. But let me elaborate:
GDP: As you can see from the chart below, in his first term Trump has not reached Obama’s highs, or even GWB’s for that matter. They both broke 5%, Trump has maxed out at 4%. You wouldn’t know it from listening to “college educated” Trump supporters. But hey, self-owning is the new norm. The reason for our mediocre GDP performance is simple: those socialist Europeans and communist Asians are laughing AT Donald Trump. Not with him.
DEBT: This is where the fat (plus sized?) lady might as well shatter everyone’s eardrums. Not for the faint of heart, no explanation needed for this one. Just note that Trump’s increase intensified Obama’s climb way before the pandemic:
And last but not least, the darling of the Trumpists, S&P performance (Stock Market). Take a close look at the chart below. What do you see?
Let me unpack it for you in two steps:
1.PRACTICALLY EVERY US PRESIDENT HAS SET A FUCKING S&P RECORD FOR THEIR TIME. It’s built in to the nature of the stock market beast. Trumpist, your adulation of Trump as a stock market messiah is beyond pathetic.
2. If we could brag about anything when it comes to the stock market it would be RATE of growth. How much it grew during the same period of time in each respective administration (as measured by the steepness of the curve). Now take a look at the chart again. What do you see? That’s right, Clinton and Obama impacted a much higher rate of growth.
Listen, I know I got snarky here. I’m tired. We are all tired of the shenanigans on both sides. But college-educated Trumpists, do us all a favor: either get a clue before you talk about “Trump’s Economy” (or the Republicans’ economy for that matter), or for the love of humanity just shut the hell up.
